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Manchester United have drawn the short straw with the most punishing start to the 2025/26 Premier League campaign, according to data analysts Opta.
Ruben Amorim’s side kick off at home against Arsenal before traveling to face Manchester City. Chelsea, Fulham (away), and Burnley (home) round out their first five games—earning United a daunting average opponent rating of 94.6 out of 100.
Arsenal Also in the Deep End
The Gunners don’t have it much easier. Their early schedule includes trips to Old Trafford and the Etihad, plus showdowns with Liverpool, Leeds, and Nottingham Forest. That earns them the second-highest average opponent rating at 94.
Both clubs face three of the traditional ‘Big Six’ within their opening stretch.
Villa and Palace Land Soft Starts
At the other end of the spectrum, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace will be feeling fortunate. Villa begin against Newcastle but then face Brentford, Palace, Everton, and newly promoted Sunderland. Palace’s path includes Chelsea, Nottingham Forest, Villa, Sunderland, and West Ham.
Sunderland’s Premier League return skews the data slightly. Their opponent rating of 82.3 is the lowest in the league and features in all five of Opta’s ‘easiest’ schedules.
Liverpool and City Face Mixed Fortunes
Liverpool, defending champions, don’t have it easy either. Arne Slot’s first five games include Newcastle, Arsenal, and Everton—earning the Reds the fifth-toughest schedule at 93.3.
City, surprisingly, sit mid-table in difficulty rankings. Despite facing Spurs, Brighton, United, and Arsenal early on, their opener against Wolves helps soften the overall rating.
Opta’s Method
Opta’s rankings factor in opponent strength based on their Power Rankings, along with home and away status, to generate a difficulty score for each team.
The Importance of a Strong Start
History shows that early form matters. Of the last 12 champions, only one—Manchester City in 2021-22—lost on the opening day and still lifted the trophy.
With fixture difficulty mapped out, the pressure is on for clubs to navigate their opening games wisely.
