at 
The 2026 NCAA tournaments are expected to drive another huge wave of betting in the U.S., with legal sportsbooks and prediction markets both pushing the total higher.
Sportsbooks Brace for a Bigger Tournament
H2 Gambling Capital projects U.S. sportsbooks will take about $4 billion in bets on this year’s men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments. That would mark a 6.7% increase from the estimated $3.7 billion wagered during the 2025 event.
The growth is tied to continued expansion in legal betting states, along with Missouri joining the market after launching sports betting in December. With early games starting March 17 and the full first round tipping off March 19, operators are heading into one of their busiest stretches of the year.
Why March Madness Stands Apart
The Super Bowl still draws more money on a single game, but March Madness is different because it delivers betting volume across dozens of matchups over roughly three weeks.
That steady stream of action is why H2 calls it the most-bet event on the U.S. sports calendar. For sportsbooks, it is not just one tentpole game. It is an extended run of constant wagering across online and retail channels.
Prediction Markets Add Another Layer
H2 also estimates prediction markets could generate about $530 million in handle-equivalent wagering tied to the 2026 tournament. If that happens, total betting connected to March Madness could approach $4.5 billion.
There is an important distinction, though. Prediction market volume and sportsbook handle are not measured the same way, so the comparison is not exact. Even so, the projection shows these exchanges are becoming a bigger piece of the overall betting picture.
Legal Questions Still Hang Over the Market
State regulators continue to argue that sports event contracts offered by prediction markets amount to unlicensed gambling. The exchanges maintain they are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Despite that fight, the contracts remain available nationwide for this year’s tournament, including in states where traditional sportsbooks are not legal.
Limited Threat to Traditional Sportsbooks
H2 does not believe prediction markets will take a major bite out of sportsbook business in states where legal betting is already up and running.
The firm estimates prediction markets will generate around $135 million to $150 million in handle-equivalent activity in those states, or about 3.5% of the projected $4 billion sportsbook total. In H2’s view, that is too small a share to make prediction markets the easy excuse for any softer sportsbook numbers.
March Madness Still Pulls in Casual Bettors
Data from Juice Reel shows the tournament continues to attract players who may not bet much during the rest of the season. Last year, 12% of March Madness bettors tracked by the app had placed no wagers during the pre-tournament period.
That helps explain why the event matters so much to operators. It is not only a revenue driver, it is also one of the best chances of the year to bring casual players back.
Sportsbooks Could See a Strong Revenue Boost
H2 expects sportsbooks to post a 7% hold during the 2026 tournament, up from an estimated 6.1% last year.
That would translate to about $279 million in gross gaming revenue, a jump of more than 23% year over year. For sportsbooks, that is the number that really matters. For bettors, it is another reminder that March Madness remains one of the biggest and busiest betting events on the calendar.
